= Already in
= Not yet eligible
= Eligible for less than 5 years
= Eligible for more than 5 years and not in
| Name | Stats | Success | Awards | Consistency | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 1.34 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 2.22 |
| Peyton Manning | 1.45 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 2.19 |
| Steve Young | 1.53 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 2.15 |
| Joe Montana | 1.12 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 1.89 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1.28 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1.82 |
| Roger Staubach | 1.06 | 0.39 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1.70 |
| Brett Favre | 1.03 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 1.57 |
| Drew Brees | 1.08 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 1.57 |
| Dan Marino | 1.04 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1.56 |
| Dan Fouts | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1.34 |
| Ken Anderson | 0.93 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1.20 |
| Kurt Warner | 0.70 | 0.32 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1.19 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 0.72 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 1.13 |
| John Elway | 0.65 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1.11 |
| Terry Bradshaw | 0.65 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1.09 |
| Philip Rivers | 0.82 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1.09 |
| Fran Tarkenton | 0.70 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1.06 |
| Russell Wilson | 0.52 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.96 |
| Donovan McNabb | 0.61 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.95 |
| Jim Kelly | 0.56 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.94 |
| Warren Moon | 0.69 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.93 |
| Bob Griese | 0.56 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.90 |
| Ken Stabler | 0.51 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.88 |
| Boomer Esiason | 0.65 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.87 |
| Tony Romo | 0.61 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.82 |
| Matt Ryan | 0.58 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.80 |
| Randall Cunningham | 0.56 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.80 |
| Troy Aikman | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.67 |
| Rich Gannon | 0.37 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.67 |
| Joe Theismann | 0.30 | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.63 |
| Steve McNair | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.54 |
| Craig Morton | 0.30 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.52 |
| Mark Brunell | 0.29 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| Jeff Garcia | 0.38 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Jim Plunkett | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
| Jim Everett | 0.32 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.45 |
| Jim Hart | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Phil Simms | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.40 |
| Neil Lomax | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.40 |
| Billy Kilmer | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| Carson Palmer | 0.27 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| Steve Bartkowski | 0.21 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| Eli Manning | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.27 |
| Jeff George | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| Ron Jaworski | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Dave Krieg | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Steve Grogan | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Cam Newton | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Matthew Stafford | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Brad Johnson | -0.08 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Ken O'Brien | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Steve DeBerg | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Chris Chandler | -0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Alex Smith | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Archie Manning | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Joe Ferguson | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Jake Plummer | -0.08 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Joe Flacco | -0.29 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 |
| Lynn Dickey | -0.11 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 | -0.04 |
| Kerry Collins | -0.16 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.06 |
| Jim Zorn | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | -0.08 |
| Jeff Blake | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.11 |
| Richard Todd | -0.22 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.02 | -0.12 |
| Andy Dalton | -0.17 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.14 |
| Jim Harbaugh | -0.27 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.19 |
| Jay Cutler | -0.27 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.24 |
| Dan Pastorini | -0.39 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.27 |
| Jon Kitna | -0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.43 |
They map to each other quite well.
Using these scores, I did some basic logistic regression to make predictions. I used all players that retired before 2010 as the training set and assigned a score of 1 for 'in' and 0 for 'not in'. I used all other players as the test data. The pseudo r^2 is ~0.8.
To make predictions now, I'll use tiers:
- lock - these guys will almost certainly get in
- maybe - decent shot but no guarantee they get in
- no - seems really unlikely they'll get in
Lock
Scores above 1.2 define this tier. All QBs in the past that were in this range easily made it in. The active and recently retired QBs in this range are:
- Tom Brady
- Peyton Manning
- Aaron Rodgers
- Drew Brees
I would be surprised if those 4 don't make it in at some point barring a massive controversy. Based on the regression results, Drew Brees has the lowest odds of getting in from this category, but he should be a lock for getting in eventually.
Maybe
Scores above 0.85 define this tier. Most QBs in this tier make it, but it's not a guarantee. Ken Anderson and Boomer Esiason are here and have been eligible for a while now but are not in. Their lack of post-season success is the primary reason.
In all, there are 10 QBs in this tier that have been eligible for many years, and 8 of those 10 are in. The active and recently retired QBs in this range are:
In all, there are 10 QBs in this tier that have been eligible for many years, and 8 of those 10 are in. The active and recently retired QBs in this range are:
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Phillip Rivers
- Donovan McNabb
- Russell Wilson
I personally feel like Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger will get in barring a complete career collapse. but Rivers and McNabb are iffier. Neither has a Super Bowl win, and neither dominated their peers statistically like Marino and Fouts. I would be surprised if both McNabb and Rivers get in. Based on the regression, Russell Wilson is in the best position followed closely by Roethlisberger, McNabb is in good shape, and Rivers is very iffy.
No
Scores at or below 0.85 define this tier. Only 1 QB on this list has made it to the Hall of Fame from this tier, and it was Troy Aikman with 3 Super Bowl wins. There's a huge number of recent and active QBs in this tier so I won't list them all. Instead, I will list the ones that I think actually have a chance at making it in:
- Matt Ryan: still playing at a very high level, Falcons are a good team, had one of the best seasons of all time (2016), and a Super Bowl win is likely enough to get him in
- Eli Manning: played well enough throughout most of his career, has two Super Bowl MVP's, and stopped the Patriot's perfect season...the drama/underdog thing around that was really impactful
- Cam Newton: will possibly end up as the most successful running QB in history, and has a somewhat unique style that makes him stand out
Based on the regression results, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Eli Manning (in that order) have the best shot from this group. I just can't see Flacco getting in with such abysmal numbers compared with his peers. He never even made the pro bowl.
Final interesting note
Based on the regression score, Warren Moon is the biggest shocker in the Hall of Fame. He is the only player below players that didn't get in. Rich Gannon, Joe Theismann, Ken Anderson, and Randall Cunningham all scored higher. However, much of his prime was in the CFL and is not accounted for here so that maybe played a big factor.
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